A new government study says that 1 million workers will be needed in the US information technology industry in the next eight years - a demand that coincides with a plunge in the number of students going into the field.
The Commerce Department report, released today, said the dearth of people trained to jump into the huge number of new openings could prevent the United States from taking full advantage of the economic opportunity that awaits.
"A shortage of IT workers will inhibit productivity across all industries," Andrew Pincus, general counsel for the Commerce Department, said at a press conference.
One reason for the shortage, the study found, is a steep fall in the number of people getting computer science degrees. Between 1986 and 1994, the number of bachelor's, master's, and doctorates awarded in the field fell from about 50,000 to 36,000.
The report also noted that populations that could be rich recruiting grounds are now getting the fewest degrees: Women earn more than half of all bachelor's degrees, but account for just 1.1 percent of degrees in computer science - and their share in the field fell in 1994 to the lowest level since 1979. And, while Asians, blacks, and Hispanics who earn bachelor's degrees choose computer science more than whites, they remain underrepresented in the field because of the low number of college-bound minority students.
"This issue goes to the heart of economic prosperity for the entire country," said Harris Miller, president of the Information Technology Association of America, which is teaming up with the Clinton administration and the University of California to find ways to draw more people into the field. "Think about if we had run out of iron ore in the Industrial Revolution."
Industry leaders, including Microsoft, Oracle, and Cisco, will discuss solving the high-tech shortage at a meeting at the University of California, Berkeley, in January. In the meantime, the US Department of Labor is assembling two task forces to examine what barriers prevent women and minorities from entering the field and how to upgrade skills of the current work force for the digital age.
"For us, the lack of IT professionals is like trying to flow an ocean through a narrow stream," said Nancy Lewis, general manager for global training and certification for Microsoft. Lewis said Microsoft has 3,000 full-time job openings each year - many of which the company cannot fill because of a lack of qualified candidates. She added that an astounding 80,000 jobs will be available within the next 12 months among Microsoft contractors.
The most sought-after applicants are computer scientists, engineers, systems analysts, and programmers. High-tech companies are combing college campuses, putting on job fairs, and offering signing bonuses of US$10,000 and up to qualified candidates. In addition, companies are retraining laid-off military workers and retirees for positions, and going into high schools and junior high schools encouraging kids to take advanced math and science classes.
"The project managers are the biggest lack we have," said Paul Cosgrave, president of the Clarement Technology Group, an information technology company. He said that of the expected 500 open positions at his company next year, he will have to hire the majority from overseas.
So with cash-rich companies throwing money at loan-strapped college kids, why the shortage?
The Commerce Department study points to a host factors: the rapid and unexpected growth of the Internet in the past few years; the unforeseen explosion in electronic commerce; and the year 2000 problem, which is causing diversion of skilled workers.
Other factors included students' belief that university training is ineffective in dealing with real-life market demands, especially regarding industrial-strength software development processes, and the increasing importance of on-the-job training. Microsoft's Lewis even cites the "geek factor": convincing people that not all computer professionals wear pocket protectors as fashion accessories.
Both the study and industry agree that a huge underlying cause is the abysmal state of mathematics education in the United States. Only about half of all high school graduates in the US complete a chemistry course or two years of algebra, both of which are requirements for pursuing college math and science. The study found that 33 percent of job applicants in all fields can't pass basic skills in reading and math.
"The level of mathematics education is so horribly bad," said Shouman Datta, former director of strategic technology at the San Francisco Unified School District. "Fifty-one percent of math teachers in the United States never took math in college. There are more gym teachers teaching mathematics than mathematicians."
Education Secretary Richard Riley said at today's press conference that new administration initiatives will try to identify and duplicate high-school programs that are successful at preparing kids for a high-tech future, and that the administration will work to duplicate those programs. The administration also is looking to increase federal technology literacy funds, and President Clinton has called for voluntary national math testing of all 8th graders.
"The American worker of the future will have to know more about science and technology than ever before," Riley said.
One reason for the lack of skilled math teachers may be that those who are really good at it could make a lot more money working in the private sector.
"That's certainly a problem," said Patricia McNeal, assistant secretary at the Education Department. "But we would hope that some might choose to go into academics." McNeal pointed to government-sponsored "school-to-work" programs, which allow teachers and students to work in the private sector during school breaks. Unfortunately, federal funding for the project - US$400 million over five years to states and localities - will end in 2000, she said.
