Rogue nations that don't cotton to the United States' role in the new world order could launch a ballistic missile attack on US soil with little or no warning, a Congressional panel chock-full of generals, spymasters, and military analysts concluded in a report that challenges previous estimates.
The nine-member commission, nominated last year by Congress and selected by the CIA director, unanimously recommended a full review of US analyses and policies regarding a nuclear threat from the likes of Iraq, Iran, and North Korea. China and Russia, both referred to as being in "uncertain transitions," were cited as missile threats and the largest proliferators of weapons of mass destruction.
"The threat to the US ... is broader, more mature, and evolving more rapidly than has been reported in estimates and reports by the intelligence community," the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Threat to the United States wrote in an unclassified version of its report released today. An classified version of the 300-page report was submitted to Congress on Tuesday.
House National Security Chairman Floyd Spence called the report a "wake-up call for all Americans." House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who wants a national missile defense system, called the assessment "the most important warning about our national security system since the end of the Cold War."
The report said that nations which "do not welcome the US role as a stabilizing power" view long-range missiles as a useful tool against US targets.
The commission said, for example, a North Korean Taepo Dong 2 missile could imperil western US soil "in an arc extending northwest from Phoenix, Arizona, to Madison, Wisconsin." Iran is seeking advanced missile components for weapons that could hit Pennsylvania or Minnesota.
The report differs from a 1995 CIA assessment, which concluded that no country among the five-nation nuclear club would be able to threaten US cities with ballistic missiles for another 15 years. "The knowledge needed to design and build a nuclear weapon is now widespread," said the report, which estimated Iraq, Iran, and North Korea's mass-destruction capabilities to be just five years off.
"During several of those years, the US might not be aware that such a decision had been made," the report said. "Available alternative means of delivery can shorten the warning time of deployment nearly to zero."
This week's report comes after US spies were embarrassed when they failed to detect Pakistan's preparations for a medium-range ballistic missile test in April, and after North Korea's deployment of its No Dong missiles after what appeared to have been only one test.
"Deception and denial efforts are intense and often successful, and US collection and analysis assets are limited," the report said. "Together, they create a high risk of continued surprise."
CIA director George Tenet, in a letter to members of Congress, called the ballistic missile threat "complex, serious, and growing" and agreed with the commission on the "need to focus relentlessly" on the issue.
The panel was headed by Donald Rumsfeld, a former US defense secretary. Other members include: former CIA director James Woolsey; General Lee Butler, former commander of the US Strategic Command; William Graham, former director of the White House office of Science and Technology Policy; William Schneider Jr., a former presidential adviser on arms control; General Larry Welch, former commander of the US Strategic Air Command; Paul Wolfowitz, former undersecretary of defense; and Barry Blechman, former assistant director of the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency.
