International Data Corp. is forecasting a healthy first-quarter demand for personal computers, led by vibrant US and Western European markets, but the technology-research firm predicts PC prices will continue to weaken during 1999.
IDC of Framingham, Massachusetts, expects the number of PCs shipped worldwide in the first quarter to grow 14.1 percent, year-over-year, and sees the Asia-Pacific market, excluding Japan, showing continuing signs of a rebound.
Following a well-established seasonal pattern, first-quarter volume is expected to fall 14.7 percent from the 1998 fourth quarter, IDC reported Tuesday.
It expects 103.2 million PCs to be shipped from factories in 1999, an increase of 14.3 percent from 1998.
Signs of continuing price pressure in the PC market are reflected in IDC's outlook for growth in the dollar value of PC shipments: It sees a rise of just 4.8 percent in 1999, to US$178.4 billion.
Low projected growth in the value of 1999 PC shipments shows the continued slide in consumer, commercial desktop, and portable PC prices, IDC said.
On a worldwide basis, Compaq was the top PC seller in the 1998 fourth quarter, lifting its market share by a fraction to 15.3 percent.
IBM was No. 2 with a 9.7 percent market share, down slightly from a year earlier. Dell was third, increasing its market share to 8.4 percent from 6.2 percent.
Dell, growing at triple the rate of rival computer makers, pulled ahead of Hewlett-Packard, which fell to fourth place with a 6 percent share, down from 6.2 percent a year earlier. Packard Bell NEC came in fifth, its market share slipping nearly one percent to 4.4 percent.
First-quarter worldwide growth is being led by strong consumer markets in the United States, Western Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and Japan. In the United States, consumer interest in inexpensive PCs has extended beyond the holiday shopping season as low-cost vendors look to sell sizable numbers of machines. Concerns about the Y2K computer bug could affect older PCs, and a resilient portable PC market is adding to first-quarter demand, IDC said.
In the United States, Compaq led fourth quarter shipments with 18.1 percent of the market, down a percentage point from last year. Dell was in second place, increasing its share to 12.8 percent from 9.9 percent a year earlier.
Gateway moved ahead of IBM to take third place, in terms of shipments. Gateway's market share was 9.1 percent, equal with that of IBM. Gateway increased its market share from 8.3 percent while IBM saw its share fall from 9.9 percent. Hewlett-Packard came in fifth, its market share increasing to 7.2 percent from 6.8 percent a year earlier.
While Dell posted 56 percent growth in US fourth-quarter shipments, Gateway and HP also posted strong growth of 33 percent and 30 percent, respectively.
On a worldwide basis, Dell saw 58 percent growth in fourth-quarter shipments. Compaq, its nearest competitor on that score, saw only 17 percent growth.
IDC, a division of privately held media, research, and conference firm International Data Group, expects the US market to account for around 40 percent of first-quarter PC shipments. Western Europe should take around 26 percent of shipments while the Asia-Pacific region will have 11 percent and Japan about 9 percent, IDC said.
Copyright© 1999 Reuters Limited.
