They'll build a better mousetrap before anybody figures out how to pick the ponies.
The latest horse-handicapping software can crunch data from a jockey's weight to the kind of shoes a horse wears, but no technology can predict the unpredictable.
Betting on the horses has changed since Saratoga Springs opened the US' first racetrack in 1863. Handicappers these days have a plethora of software and computer devices available to help them place their bets.
But one thing remains the same: Being successful at the track is largely a matter of luck.
"Ninety-five percent of it is common sense, there's no science to it. Yes, there are people trying to make it a science, but still, they're going to those windows every day and they still have to work. No one's making those millions," said Michael Nevin, who trains a dozen horses.
But John Cole, owner of a company that makes a betting software system called Focus 2000, says he has many customers who make betting their profession.
"We have lots and lots of people making a full-time living. This is not a so-called get-rich-quick type of thing," Cole said.
The key to Focus 2000, which costs US$595 for the full version, is its algorithm for "sort models" which figures out the probability of winning by calculating all of the ratings of the horses in a race, Cole said.
"That's something that we work on constantly, and in 14 years we've got some pretty darn good calculations," Cole said.
Frandsen Publishing also makes a handicapping software called All Ways, which costs $895 for the professional version, while the standard version is free to download.
"What makes our software so different is it customizes itself for every specific track in the country and every specific kind of race running," said Gary Hall, the company's owner. "There's no other software that does that."
Also, since most bettors don't bet strictly on the winner, Hall said his software is customized to pay as much attention to the horses coming in second or third as those winning.
