TOKYO -- In the arcane world of Japanese domestic politics, it made perfect sense: a new premier opposed by conservatives tries to placate his foes by appealing to nationalist sentiment.
But Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's pledge to pay respects to Japan's war dead at a shrine that also honors executed war criminals is turning out to be a major headache.
And as criticism - domestic and international - of the proposed Aug. 15 visit heightens and Koizumi appears to waver, many in Japan are wondering if he will made good on his pledge.
The proposed visit to Yasukuni Shrine has riled China and South Korea, strained Koizumi's relationship with his most popular minister, and turned into a daily topic at government press conferences and in the media.
The prime minister is being increasingly coy.
"I'm giving it some serious thought," was all that Koizumi would say to reporters Friday while meeting with members of his coalition in the upper house of Parliament.
It's difficult to tell whether Koizumi's indecisive comments about plans to go to the shrine are aimed at mollifying critics or indicate a true change of heart.
"He made that decision based on his gut sense," said Ronald Morse, an expert in Japanese politics at the University of Southern California at Los Angeles. "But now, of course, he's prime minister and he's trying to be diplomatic."
But one thing is certain: the choice will not be an easy one. If he goes to Yasukuni, he risks alienating Asian neighbors just as ties are expanding. But a reversal could be seen as giving in to foreign pressure.
When Koizumi took power in April, he boldly told reporters that he would go to Yasukuni on the 56th anniversary of Japan's surrender in World War II.
The decision was rooted in his nationalist views, but it was also a political calculation. With many of his reformist economic policies opposed by his Liberal Democratic Party, Koizumi needed a position that would appeal to the party's conservative wing.
But it also rang alarm bells in China and South Korea.
The shrine was used to encourage militarist fervor before and during the war, and among the 2.5 million Japanese war dead enshrined there are executed war criminals, including wartime Prime Minister Hideki Tojo.
China, South Korea and other Asian nations see a visit there by a prime minister as official homage to Tokyo's war of aggression in the region.
South Korea has requested that Tokyo remove the names of Koreans enshrined there, and Beijing has suggested that a visit could damage ties with Tokyo.
In an effort to control the damage, Koizumi met Thursday with Chinese Ambassador Wu Dawei in Tokyo to discuss the visit. He said he would decide whether to go to the shrine after "listening to the opinions of various people."
There is also dissent within Koizumi's Cabinet. The foreign minister, Makiko Tanaka, told Chinese and South Korean officials last month that she would try to persuade Koizumi to scuttle the visit.
Koizumi has said a Yasukuni visit is merely a heartfelt recognition of the millions who sacrificed their lives for the country.
But the Yomiuri newspaper suggested in an editorial that Japan should come up with a less inflammatory way of honoring its war dead.
"The only way to settle the dispute will be for the government to build a secular national cemetery in memory of those who sacrificed their lives for the nation in wars," the newspaper said.
A poll of Japanese voters published Saturday in the Asahi newspaper showed that 65 percent of respondents think Koizumi should be cautious about paying his respects at the shrine. Twenty-six percent said the prime minister should ignore the criticism and commit himself to the visit. The newspaper said it telephoned 3,753 registered Japanese voters Wednesday and Thursday nationwide, of whom 58 percent responded. No margin of error was given.
There was speculation that Koizumi would try to soften the effects of a visit to the shrine by issuing an official statement reiterating Tokyo's dedication to peace.
But in the end, the prime minister's decision may rest with the same impulse it began with - political survival.
"If he doesn't go, he's going to tick off the right wing, he's going to tick off a lot of Japanese," said Morse. "That could be a body blow to his popularity."
Copyright © 2001 Associated Press.
