New Phase in Insurgent Campaign?

Decades ago, Mao-Tse Dung outlined three phases to an insurgent campaign.

• • Phase I, The Strategic Defensive: The insurgents will concentrate primarily
    on building political strength, Military action will be limited to harassment
    attacks and selected, politically motivated assassinations.
• • Phase II, The Strategic Stalemate: The insurgents gain strength and
    consolidate control of base areas. They begin to actively administer some portions
    of the contested area. Military activity increases as dictated by political requirements.
• • Phase III, The Strategic Offensive: Only after the correlation of forces
    has shifted decisively in their favor do the insurgents commit their regular forces
    in the final offensive against the government.*

Up until now, the insurgency in Iraq, nasty as it is, has been mostly a Phase I affair: stealthily setting off roadside bombs; taking out inconvenient politicians; setting off the occasional mortar or RPG; keeping the political climate unstable. But now, things may be changing to a new phase, at least in some areas. Repeated attacks on American helicopters have become a central part of the insurgent playbook. And the direct attacks on U.S. forces are become much more bold, and much better organized. Look at what happened today:

In a coordinated assault on an American combat outpost north of Baghdad, suicide bombers drove three cars filled with explosives into the base today, killing two American soldiers and wounding at least 17
more, witnesses and the American military said.

The brazen and highly unusual attack, which was followed by fierce gun battles and a daring evacuation of the wounded Americans by helicopters, came on a day of violence across the country that left more than 40 people dead in shootings, suicide bombings, mortar attacks and roadside explosions...

*The American combat outpost, located in the abandoned police headquarters in the center of the town, was fortified by large blast walls. Typically, the Americans keep one company of about 100 soldiers at such outposts. *

The suicide bombers who attacked the outpost today timed their assault to inflict maximum damage, witnesses said.

Shortly before dawn, two suicide bombers drove cars filled with explosives into the outer perimeter of the outpost. As American soldiers tried to assess the damage and help the wounded, a third bomber drove his car into the building.

There was a heavy exchange of gunfire after the explosions and as the firefight raged, at least four American helicopters swept into
Tarmyia to evacuate the wounded soldiers.

The American military, in a statement, confirmed only that the outpost was attacked, that a car bomb was involved and that two soldiers were killed and another 17 wounded.

By nightfall, American forces had sealed off all entrances in and out of the town, leaving residents worried that they would be cut off from basic supplies. A curfew was imposed and residents said they were not even allowed to walk outside their homes.

An American military officer, who requested anonymity because there is an active investigation into the assault, said that while many of the facts remained unknown, the attack was “not typical.”

Let's hope not.