There really isn't a great market these days for United Launch Alliance's Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicles, so why not use them to blast some rich tourists up in space?
According to a press release issued today, an agreement to use the Atlas V to carry private cargo and passengers is now sealed:
*SpaceDev, Inc. (OTCBB: SPDV) has finalized a Memorandum of Understanding with United Launch Alliance to pursue the potential of launching its SpaceDev Dream Chaser™ space vehicle carrying passengers and cargo on an Atlas V launch vehicle. Destinations could include the International Space Station (ISS) and other commercial orbital destinations as well as for commercial orbital space tourism flights. *
The SpaceDev Dream Chaser™ space vehicle is being designed to provide a reusable and reconfigurable platform that is environmentally friendly, provides enhanced safety and provides affordable access for space-based activities for the US government, entrepreneurs and small businesses. This unique space transportation system is designed to reliably and safely carry crew/passengers and cargo in the suborbital and orbital flight regimes. The SpaceDev Dream Chaser™ space vehicle can be adapted to various mission configurations including carrying six to eight people to and from space or a combination of people and cargo. It provides a safe and affordable solution for civil and commercial space operations and is a piloted space solution which launches vertically and lands horizontally on conventional runways. Initial flight launch demonstrations are scheduled in 2009.
If the Lockheed/Boeing United Launch Alliance can't provide affordable launch services for government, it's doubtful it'll be that much better in the private market. There's actually a well reasoned argument about the pricing problems on Jonathan Goff''s blog. He looks at both the supply and demand, and while cutting Lockheed some slack on the cost of a ticket to ride the Atlas V, he still concludes even if the price came down to $10 million, there wouldn't be enought people to fill all the slots:
*So how much private demand is there likely to be at that price? Unfortunately the numbers don't look very good. As t/Space points out, wealthy individuals are unlikely to spend more than 1.5-5% of their net worth on a vacation. What that means is that for a $10M ticket to be less than 5% of your net worth, you need a net worth of greater than $200M, which puts you on par with Tito and Shuttleworth. According to the numbers at the time of the Futron study, there are about 6000 households in the world with that much net worth or greater. Once you factor in the percent that are likely to be interested, that are in good health, and all other factors, you're down to a probable market of around 1000 people. In order to drive demand up enough to drive your price down to the $10M range, you need 15-20 flights per year. If say 10 of those per year were passenger flights, that would require 7% of the total potential customer base per year to want to fly. While that is possible, I'm not sure how realistic it is. *
That's all right. United Launch Alliance's captive customer, the Pentagon, is in for the long haul and they've got deep pockets.
