(...)
"In recent years, the Russian wolf has run rings around the free countries of the world in general, and European ones in particular. Deploying gas pipelines, banks and embargoes instead of tanks and missiles, it has intimidated, or tried to intimidate, many of its neighbours. (((To be fair, Russia also runs rings around it's numerous "unfree" neighbors, who need Russian fuel just as much as the free ones do.)))
A Swedish researcher has identified 55 cases of energy cut-offs or threatened cut-offs between 1992 and 2006. While "technical" reasons were usually cited, most of the cut-offs just happened to occur when Moscow wished to obtain some political or economic advantage, such as influencing an election or letting state-controlled companies like Gazprom buy into energy infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the countries of the European Union have been at sixes and sevens in their relations with Moscow. It's a general rule that if you want to see the EU at its most divided, supine and implausible, (((I'll bring the popcorn))) you should look at it from the vantage point of a rich, large, powerful country, be it Russia, China or the United States. (((China a rich country. News at 11.)))
" Policymakers in Beijing, Moscow and Washington share views of the EU ranging from the sceptical to the contemptuous, for they see each national government privately coming, cap in hand, to make its own deal. Small wonder that Putin's Russia feels it can pursue its own national interests better by dealing with individual European powers. Europe, as it currently behaves towards Russia, China and the US, is a standing invitation to "divide and rule". (((Unless you actually ARE a tiny individual nation OUTSIDE of the EU and knocking at the Schengen Barrier, in which case the EU is as terrifying as some kind of colossal, ultra-rich, hydra-headed high-tech jellyfish.)))
The kow-towing is personal as well as national. The former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder, having smoothed the way for Russia's Nord Stream gas pipeline under the Baltic sea while in office, is now chairman of the pipeline consortium. In an interview less than 18 months ago, he was still publicly sticking by his claim that Putin is a "flawless democrat". Oh yes, and black is white.
A recent report by the European Council on Foreign Relations, a pan-European thinktank (full disclosure: on whose board I sit), documents this pathetic disarray.
It also points out that if you treat the EU as a unit, it is potentially far more powerful than Russia. (((Well, uh, yeah.)))
Its total economy is 15 times the size of Russia's, which barely outstrips that of Belgium and the Netherlands combined. (((Yeah, and take away those gaspipes and Holland alone could knock 'em over with a feather.)))
About half Russia's trade is with the EU, while Russian gas supplies only 25% of current EU gas needs. As for "soft power" - the power to attract - Russia does not begin to compete. It's only because Europe is so divided that the tail wags the dog.
(((Actually, threats to shut off the gaspipe are "soft power." So are trade sanctions. Soft isn't always sweet and attractive.)))
There is now a fairly widespread recognition in the capitals of Europe that the EU needs to "get its act together" about Russia, which means also about energy policy. But that is little use so long as Europe's leaders cannot agree which line they should unite around. The election - no, the coronation - of a new Russian president is a good moment to consider what that line should be: for Europe, and for others as well....
