Game|Life's 2008 Predictions: How We Did

Round about this time last year, Game|Life's stable of would-be Nostradamuses attempted to predict what would happen in 2008.

Let's see how we did.

I'm going to pull out all of the actual hard predictions from that story, which was a mix of predictions, advice, trends we were watching, and other such things. We'll find out where we were spot on and where we blew it. It'll be great. I think.

But at some point this year, the
Wii shortage has got to end -- whether because of increased supply, lessened demand, or both in concert.

Whoops, I actually underestimated Nintendo. To its credit, it did get a ridiculous amount of Wii consoles in stores this year, to the point where you could actually walk into a Best Buy and purchase one around Black Friday. But checking online right now, Wii is sold out again. I lose.

Look for Nintendo to put a great deal of emphasis on Wii Fit this year, when it does release -- I'm thinking sometime after March, but not too much later.

Yep, but that wasn't too difficult to guess.

I expect we'll see Wii Music early this year in Japan, held over a few months before its US debut.

Does that count for half a point?

Look for Nintendo to make a big splash at GDC and E3 this year.

Lose one for overestimating Nintendo. To be fair, they did end up announcing Punch-Out and Sin and Punishment 2, even if said announcements were a bit belated.

Look for PlayStation 3 to sell fewer units than its rivals, every month, for the duration of 2008.

Somehow, Sony actually did manage to squeak out a couple of victories over Xbox 360 in the monthly sales results. But things quickly got back to normal.

*Metal Gear Solid 4 *will get a certain group of hardcore gamers to buy the PS3, and it has enough mainstream appeal to get some casual players interested. But it won't make an especially huge splash.

And it did not.

But I don't expect Home, or *LittleBigPlanet *for that matter, to see release before the fall.

They were not.

So Sony will probably kill the 80
GB as we currently know it, either replace the 80 GB models with a new version that has the new backward-incompatible chipset, or just take the 40 GB model and throw a bigger hard drive in there.

Ding.

I'm sure some SKU reconfiguration or another will come in 2008, accompanied by a price drop to $300 for this holiday for the low end and $400 for the high end.

Oh: burned by overestimating Sony. And you wonder why I drink.

Look for Microsoft to continue to play feature catch-up with both rival consoles. That might mean a version of the console with an HD-DVD drive inside, even though Bill
Gates didn't announce this yesterday at CES. Or a motion-sensing controller.

Of course, neither of these things happened, but only because... well, who could have foreseen that Microsoft really just wanted to copy the Mii?

2008 is the year that the lowest-end model of Xbox 360 goes under $200.

Ding.

2008 is also (almost definitely this time!) the year that Too Human and Alan Wake, among other are-they-vaporware-or-what titles, actually materialize.
That said, Microsoft still doesn't have a big tent-pole of a title for the holidays, which is why I bet all the Gears of War 2 rumors are probably true.

Two out of three.

And then, surprising no one, Activision, after pumping out at least two more Guitar Hero
games in the run-up to the holidays (including the Aerosmith-only version plus some other themed disc), will announce that drumming and vocals will be added into Guitar Hero IV for this holiday.

"Some other disc" turned out to be the Nintendo DS version, but otherwise pretty good here.

2008 will be the year that
Japanese game publishers finally get their asses in gear and start releasing Wii projects that aren't quickie cash-ins, much in the way that 2006 brought us a higher caliber of Nintendo DS games.

I am pretty sure this happened, although none of them sold very well.

This isn't to say that U.S.
publishers will continue to be entirely bereft of creativity. We'll hear about several enticing new projects driven by quality narrative and different gameplay.

See above. :_:

Okay, that does it for my predictions. By my count I got, like, 12 and a half out of 18. Let's see how Earnest (green) and Susan (blue) did with their shorter lists of predictions.

As Chris said, as soon as the Wii is readily available to anyone who wants one (and people begin to realize the dearth of quality games on the system), demand for the console is going to hit a wall.

Perhaps it will, but it didn't happen in 2008.

Also, in a bid to promote the system among "traditional" gamers I see the company either lobbying heavily for a Wii version of Rock Band, or creating their own Nintendo-themed simulacra of such multi-instrument rhythm titles.

Rock Band indeed turned out to be one of Wii's hottest-selling third party games this year.

Nintendo's current lead in the console war will persist throughout 2008.

Should that even count? I predict the sky will be blue tomorrow.

Demand for the Wii will begin to drop, right up until Nintendo starts pushing Wii Fit--but their target won't be overweight kids, but rather their moms.

No, yes.

As for the hardcore gamer,
Nintendo will throw them a few bones over the course of the year and largely ignore them the rest of the time. Why? Because Nintendo has learned that their core audience will stay loyal with the barest of attention paid to them. So long as Smash Brothers and Mario Kart come out, the hardcore gamers will grumble and moan, but they won't go anywhere, and Nintendo knows it.

So true it hurts.

The DS will continue to be quietly unstoppable. We'll get some new colors, but that's about it by way of change as Nintendo refuses to fix what ain't broke.

Truer than she could have known -- Japan got the DSi this year, but the Lite-loving America didn't.

Nintendo has simply monopolized the market on creative, adorable, family-friendly titles, causing the possible market for *LittleBigPlanet *to be almost non-existent, at least within the player base of the PS3.

LittleBigPlanet, if and when it finally comes out, may prove to be too high concept to find acceptance with the masses.

Sad but true. But sad.

If Sony neuters (Home) in the name of making it family-friendly, it will lose the sexual freedom aspect of Second Life that has made it such a popular virtual destination.

Not even touching this with a ten-foot pole.

Sony finally, finally got it through their heads that they should be pushing the PS3 as a game machine that coincidentally also plays movies, not the other way around.

Oh Susan, if only that were true.

Also, and as much as I wish they'd branch out into the sort of experimental indie territory that Sony's PSN releases have represented,
2008 will probably continue Xbox Live's streak of repurposed classic games.

Thank goodness for Community Games!

Microsoft's biggest announcements and changes this year will involve the Xbox Live service and/or connectivity with the Zune.

Perhaps not the latter, but definitely the former.

I think 2008 will be the year that World of Warcraft finally starts to see a noticeable decline in its playerbase. (...) The release of the Wrath of the Lich King expansion will slow this decline, but I simply can't see the game ever reaching its peak playerbase of 9 million players again.

Whoops. What's it at now, 11 million?

Finally, *Duke Nukem Forever *will not be released during 2008...

Sky. Blue. Tomorrow.

...though I believe we'll see a new trailer for the title towards the end of the year.

12 days left for this to come true!

The self-help section for the
DS will expand as we get... all sorts of coaches, trainers, and guides. We may begin to see things like books being released as the DS becomes even more ubiquitous.

True and true, if you count the books-on-cartridge thing Nintendo has released in Japan and Europe.

As big as casual games were in
2007, they'll be even more to the forefront in 2008 as major developers begin to dabble in them. (...)
Huge hits like Bookworm and Diner Dash will find their way to Xbox Live Arcade, PSN, or both.

Extremely true. This is where the money is, kids!

Well, I'd say overall we did pretty good for 2008 -- a few big stumbles notwithstanding. That's what happens. I'm sure we'll have something similar for the year 2009 soon enough.

Image: greeblie/Flickr