*Well, that's what Steve Rubel is predicting here – if his advertising magazine doesn't die even faster than the old-school websites and today's primitive social nets.
*It's like living next to the volcano. The closer you get to digital technology, the harder the ground shakes and the faster everything you know gets paved over with lava.
http://www.micropersuasion.com/2009/04/the-next-twitter-or-facebook-is-the-open-web.html
"The following is also my column in this week's issue of Advertising Age.
"As Edelman's crystal ball guy I can't go to a meeting without being asked what will succeed Twitter or Facebook as the future king of community. It's unfortunate, but it's just how history has conditioned us to think.
"Remember, however, that Second Life was digital marketing's Vietnam. (((Actually
ANYTHING digital seems to be one long marketing Vietnam. If there's no need for journalists, why on earth would we need marketers?)))
"Communities come and go. (((Yup! and so does everything you ever contributed there, every act of "participation."))) Hubs seem to lose their innovation edge just as consumers grow more fickle, new venues emerge and viable monetization options remain scarce. If history repeats itself, Facebook and Twitter will one day be replaced by something else.
" However, this time it will be the open web. (((uh-oh)))
"A group of standardized technologies are emerging that will evolve social networking from destinations we visit into something bigger - a federated address book that makes every single web site that chooses to adopt them entirely social.
"Jeremiah Owyang at Forrester Research has been thinking about this deeply. This week Forrester is releasing a paper that outlines a five year vision for how the open web, thanks to connective technologies like OpenID, will become one giant social network.
"This global brain will follow us everywhere (((ouch))) and influence every purchasing decision.
(((Why doesn't the global brain just go into business for itself, then?)))
While Forrester doesn't get this tangible, here's a fictional scenario to consider.
"Today online shopping means visiting Amazon.com, reading reviews from strangers and conducting a transaction. (((Welcome to Cool Tools.)))
"Tomorrow, as everything becomes social, you will be able to shop Amazon directly from within your iGoogle page without ever having to visit the site. What's more, Amazon will show you what your Gmail address book friends have publicly said about a product and/or its category in any one of thousands of online communities. Finally, to help you further Amazon will offer an aggregated view of your friends' friends opinions in a way that protects their identity.
"So how should marketers prepare?..." (((Maybe in the same way that masked raccoons prepare for a forest fire.)))
