*Okay, these Seattle venture-capital guys are blowing smoke, but I like it that they're blowing such specific smoke. It's like they're blowing smoke-rings.
On the panel were Kelly Smith, founding partner, Curious Office; Greg Gottesman, managing director, Madrona Venture Group; Glenn Kelman, CEO, Redfin; Bill Bryant, venture partner, Draper Fisher Jurvetson; and Andy Sack entrepreneur and general partner in Founders Co-op.
Read on for notes from the panel, gleaned from John's recording.
Let's say you're the CEO of Twitter in 2010. How do you make money?
Kelman: Charge for search, building on new partnerships with search engines. In general, Twitter is overvalued. The company is going to continue to grow, but people are paying too much attention to Twitter, and not enough to Facebook. That is still the dominant social network.
Sack: Twitter will make a lot more money than Facebook in 2010.
Kelman: You think Twitter is going to go from zero to $300 million in one year?
Sack: Yeah, sure. They've sold the search feed to Microsoft and Google. Twitter is a promotional vehicle. Facebook is a social vehicle. Twitter has more potential to make revenue.
Bryant: Twitter is not mainstream, and the traffic numbers suggest it's not going to get there.
Gottesman: If I was the CEO of Twitter in 2010 I would sell. There are a lot of buyers out there, including Microsoft, who have the perception that they could do a lot more with Twitter than Twitter can do by itself. (((Like chase all the Twitter tweeple screaming into the wilderness of the Pacific Northwest, where they will live off nine-inch banana slugs)))
Smith: I completely agree with Greg. You're a lunatic if you think Twitter is going to become a profitable company before its sold. Twitter is going to sell a bill of goods to a prospective buyer, convince this big company of its potential value. It's going to be absorbed by a big company and it's ultimately going to go nowhere. The signal-to-noise ratio on Twitter is completely unmanageable. If it's going to be useful, experience has to be totally different.
Google's stock price is currently around $577. Where will it end up in 2010?
Sack: $701
Smith: $720; based on the strength of a Google-branded phone.
Gottesman: About where it is now.
Kelman: $650; Huge shift to Google in the enterprise.
Bryant: $500; Google is still a one-trick pony. They have not historically demonstrated any other revenue stream.
Microsoft is currently around $30. Where will it end up in 2010? And will Steve Ballmer remain CEO?
Sack: Ballmer still CEO, $31.75
Kelman: $32, and if he hasn't left by now, why would he leave in 2010?
Gottesman: Ballmer will stay. Stock price will run up in 2010, with Windows 7, but will decline to current level by end of year.
Smith: Windows 7 a giant step forward. Will help them maintain market share. Azure cloud service gaining traction, and Bing has generated ability to take market share from Yahoo. About $40.
Bryant: Price will at least touch $40 with Windows 7 tailwinds.
Amazon currently around $130 a share. Has been on a great run. Where do they end up?
Sack: I'm a shareholder, and I think the stock is going to continue to go up. International expansion, core-ecommerce. $155-$160.
Kelman: Agreed. Amazon the most entrenched brand on the Internet.
Gottesman: I just feel like the stock market has run up like crazy, so I'm a little less bullish on the macro stock market. That's why I think Amazon will be around where it is today, like the other ones.
Smith: Probably $150.
Bryant: Amazon will buy Netflix and Hulu and close the year by buying Blockbuster, renaming them all as Amazon stores. Stock price: $152
Cook: In 2008, Bryant predicted Amazon would buy eBay. So take his predictions with a grain of salt.
Major mergers and acquisitions in 2010?
Gottesman: There will be some big deals, Cisco buying EMC for VMware. Locally F5 could get acquired by Cisco. Microsoft could buy RIM. If Microsoft wants to win in mobile, they have to do something like that.
Sack: Picnik will be purchased by Adobe, and ICanHasCheezburger will be bought by Rupert Murdoch.
Redfin will get purchased, no idea by whom.
Bryant: By the National Realtors Association.
Smith: comScore will get acquired, following Adobe's acquisition of Omniture.
When will Chinese companies start buying U.S. tech companies? ...
