*I used to play some blockbuster videogames, but then I learned how to watch guys in the industry wringing their hands, which was much more entertaining. via @AllenVarney
http://dubiousquality.blogspot.com/2011/02/new-day.html
The New Day
Chris Kohler wrote a terrific piece at Game|Life titled As Mobile Games Rise, Studios Fear For Blockbusters' Future.
https://www.wired.com/gamelife/2011/02/dice-blockbuster-games/
The lead:
Blockbuster videogame heroes have tamed the Wild West, repelled alien invasions and driven the Nazis from Normandy. But can they fight off Angry Birds?
It's an excellent article and thoughtful article, but allow me to take it one step further: it's not just blockbusters.
I've been thinking about this for the last few months–in particular, since game prices for the Nintendo 3DS were announced (between $39.99 and $49.95).
How is that going to work, exactly?
Even with a wonderful, beautiful 3D world in front of us, how many games will sell at those prices when there are a kajillion iPhone and Android games for $4.99 and less? Nintendo games will, but I suspect almost everyone else is out of luck. (((The transition from old-fashioned desktop multimedia units to gaseous cloudy portable whatever is affecting many industries, not just gaming. Even the designers are splitting between contemporary "interaction designers" and old-school "computer human interface special interest groups.")))
From the top-down, the middle tier has been killed by big software companies all pursuing nearly identical, "AAA only strategies." From the bottom up, the middle tier has been killed by both under $5 mobile games market and indie developers smart enough to price their brilliant, innovative games at $15 or less.
MMO games? WOW can charge a subscription. Everything else better be "freemium" if it wants to have a chance to survive.
Look, this is a sea change in the gaming market, and people aren't talking about it nearly enough. One or (at most) two companies are going to succeed with the AAA strategy, where every game costs a fortune to develop and market and has to sell several million copies to break even. (((You might want a word with Borders bookstore about this. They just went totally broke selling books, but they somehow imagine they can sell software in bright colored boxes or something.)))
Everyone else pursuing that strategy will fail.
(((How about THIS for a game strategy? Digitized Monopoly with a little AI tower of Sauron to run the game for you. Is that thing mashed-up, or what?)))
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/16/business/16monopoly.html?_r=1
One of my closest friends works for a premier gaming company, and he is a smart, smart fellow. Last year, we had a long talk and he said, "We have to go to a different model, and there are no models that work."
Bang. (((Tell it to music and journalism. In fact, tell it to political parties.)))
Now, it's time for a ridiculous metaphor.
These huge gaming companies are like giant, predatory dinosaurs in a world where all the prey that can sustain them has become endangered. They're not nearly fast or agile enough to catch what remains, because smaller predators will easily outhunt them in the new ecosystem.
It's not that all their large prey are extinct–there are still a few big, tasty creatures wandering around–but there aren't nearly enough left to sustain the giants.
What's going to happen, then?
They're going to die. (((I'll ridicule the metaphor by pointing out that the dinosaurs were killed by an asteroid. But smartphones ARE an asteroid for big clunky wire-tethered desktop machines.)))
Here's the irony. As some of these huge companies near death, they'll be bought–by other huge companies. I mean, it's a meal, right? So they'll acquire the one or two big franchises to add to their stable, thus furthering the same approach that guarantees their demise. (((Like banks, then. Makes sense.)))
As an example, let's look at one of the few companies still making money with this strategy: Activision. In February of last year, they announced their release schedule for the rest of 2010. Take a look:
* New Bakugan
* Blur
* How to Train Your Dragon
* New Call of Duty
* DJ Hero 2
* New Guitar Hero
* New James Bond
* Shrek Forever After
* Singularity
* New Spider-Man
* StarCraft II
* Tony Hawk: RIDE Sequel
* Transformers: War For Cybertron
* True Crime
* World of Warcraft: Cataclysm
Holy sht, look at that list. Guitar Hero–dead. DJ Hero–dead. Tony Hawk–dead. True Crime–dead. Blur–dead. Singularity–dead. The only functioning limbs left on Activision are Blizzard and Call Of Duty. Activision is in danger of becoming a singularity. And they're the most successful company using the "AAA only" strategy....
(((That's why we call it "dead media." Gothic High-Tech.)))
