Droneboat Diplomacy and its downsides

*As foreseen by "the scientist Hugo Gernsback."

*These peace activists, or whatever they are, are so busy decrying the use of drones that one begins to suspect that drones must be more effective than they look. It's a swell bloody-shirt catalog of modern droneware mayhem, however. This bloodletting is supposed to be discreet and ultra-secret except to the guys getting blown to shreds.

*If you imagine yourself subjected to this kind of drone activity by an unfriendly, globalized power, like, say, the Motion Picture Association of America, you can see how that would annoy.

*As Senator John McCain remarked on Twitter today, "I was impressed by the courage & dedication of the Libyan people during my visit to Benghazi." The problem with air campaigns of this kind is that they can provoke "courage and dedication." The Gadaffi regime might have thrown in the towel in a week without the stirring propaganda-of-the-deed that comes from having your sky full of killer alien hardware. But now that the population's been subjected to this kind of hey-no-fair robot oppression, the regime's quite perky and busily redefining itself as the courage-and-dedication of the Libyan people.

http://www.ameu.org/printer.asp?iid=296&aid=640

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The History of UAVs

Unmanned aerial vehicles, like gunboat diplomacy, have a long evolutionary history.

In their simplest form they date back to centuries before Christ, when the ingenious Chinese first launched kites. On Aug. 22, 1849 the Austrians used unmanned balloons, some launched from the Austrian ship Vulcano, to attack the Italian city of Venice. Some of the balloons, each 23 feet in diameter and packed with explosives, worked as intended to alarm the Italians, while unpredictable winds blew some of the devices back over the Austrian lines. (((It's been a great season in Italy for Risorgimento memorabilia. And it's true: the Austrians bombed Venice with balloons. The first guys getting bombed from manned, powered aircraft, however, were Libyans. Turkish troops and Libyan civilians in Tripoli, getting bombed by Italians.)))

During the American Civil War a surveillance camera was placed on a tethered balloon; during World War I a camera was placed on the leg of a homing pigeon. In 1915 the Kettering Bug, intended to be the first military drone, was devised as a remotely controlled weapon able to follow a crudely preprogrammed course, shed its wings and dive as a bomb on the selected target. It was never fully developed, partly through lack of funds; then the war ended, probably much to the chagrin of the Bug technicians. (((Peace activists always like to make fun of technicians for some reason.)))

The first operational UAV was A.M. Low’s "aerial target" of 1916, soon followed by a more lethal machine. On Sept. 12, 1916 the Hewitt-Sperry Automatic Airplane, dubbed a "flying bomb" and controlled by Elmer Sperry gyroscopes, made its first flight and demonstrated the feasibility of unmanned assault aircraft. In 1924 the scientist Hugo Gernsback saw the advantages of a “pilotless plane which sees” via radio control and a television link, though the current technology was inadequate for such a device. (((If the author wasn't busy Googling this stuff he might have realized who Hugo Gernsback was.)))

During the 1930s the U.S. Navy began experimenting with radio-controlled aircraft, and in 1937 produced Curtiss N2C-2 drones, remotely controlled from other aircraft. The following year the U.S. Army Air Corps signed a contract with the Radioplane Company, later the Ventura Division of Northrop Corporation, to produce three radio-controlled target drones. During WWII the United States Air Force (USAF) acquired hundreds of target UAVs, radio-controlled versions of the Culver Cadet two-seat light civil aircraft, and thousands of more sophisticated Culver designs. The German V-1 buzz bomb, used primarily to attack London during the war, has been classed as an offensive drone, a pilotless aerial vehicle carrying a bomb.

The concept of “assault drones” using television cameras began development in the early 1940s. In April 1942 a drone successfully delivered a torpedo attack on a Japanese destroyer at a range of 20 miles from the control aircraft. Then the U.S. Navy Bureau of Aeronautics launched a television-assisted remote-control assault drone program of 162 control planes and 1,000 assault drones. At this time the notion of using UAVs as assault vehicles for military targets remained controversial on cost and tactical grounds, and assault drones were not used during the major allied advances in 1944. At the end of July 1944, four drones were used to attack a beached Japanese merchant ship in the Russell Islands, with two hits and two misses. Some 46 American drones were launched in the northern Solomon Islands but while some were effective others failed to reach their targets.

After WWII, with military strategists at last perceiving the many advantages of UAVs, the U.S. began to invest heavily in their development. In May 1960, U2 spy plane pilot Francis Gary Powers was shot down over the Soviet Union, which further encouraged the development of unmanned surveillance aircraft, this time under the code name of “Red Wagon.” Camera-carrying drones were used widely for surveillance operations in the Vietnam War, the first Gulf War (1990-91), the Balkans conflicts of the 1990s, and in many subsequent theaters. By 2000 the United States was ready to use drones extensively as launch vehicles for missiles, and in 2001 the Afghans began to feel the benefits. On Nov. 3, 2002, C.I.A. operatives in Djibouti fired laser-guided Hellfire missiles from a drone at a passenger vehicle in Yemen, killing all the passengers, including an American citizen.

The Predator

The General Atomics MQ-1 Predator UAV and the GA MQ-9 Reaper UAV, Tier II systems, are among the most extensively used drones by the U.S. military and the C.I.A.

The Predator was designed in the 1990s to carry cameras and other sensors for reconnaissance operations, and was later upgraded to carry and fire two AGM-114 Hellfire missiles and other munitions. The C.I.A. became interested in the "Amber" drone developed by Leading Systems, Inc., whose owner, Abraham Karem, was a former chief designer for the Israeli Air Force who emigrated to the United States in the late 1970s. The company that took over Leading System sold five drones, then called the "Gnat," to the C.I.A., and Karem agreed to produce a quiet engine for the vehicle. Until that time the drone had sounded like a "lawnmower in the sky." The new machine, derived from the GA Gnat 750 UAV, became known as the Predator. Following successful trials in the mid-1990s the Predator was employed in the Balkans in the summer of 1995. At that time a single Predator cost around $3.2 million.

By now the C.I.A. was becoming increasingly enthusiastic about the tactical options being opened up by drone technology, and arranged for USAF teams trained by the 11th Reconnaissance Squadron at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, to fly the agency’s Predators in Bosnia and then in Kosovo. When a number of losses were caused by cold weather flight conditions, later Predators were fitted with de-icing systems, along with an up-rated turbocharged engine and improved avionics. The new system was designated the RQ-1B, or the MQ-1B when munitions were added (‘R’ denotes a reconnaissance function, ‘Q’ an unmanned aircraft system, and ‘M’ a multi-role capability combining reconnaissance and bombing functions). The Predator is now equipped with a multi-spectral targeting system, a color nose camera for flight control, a variable-aperture day-TV camera, and a variable-aperture infrared camera for cloud, smoke or night conditions. The cameras transmit full-motion video and still-frame radar images. Laser designators, standard equipment for all Predators, enables the "pilot" to identify targets for other UAVs and even provides laser guidance for manned aircraft. The designator is also used to aid target-location for the Hellfire missiles.

(((Yeah, and if I were Mr. Hugo Gernsback, I'd be predicting that these babies are gonna cost a few hundred bucks and be made of bamboo and paper.)))

The Predator has been used to bomb targets in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bosnia, Serbia and Yemen. It can fly up to 400 nautical miles to a target, loiter overhead for 14 hours, then return to its base. It relies on a ground control station (GCS) and a primary satellite link communication suite. (((That's nothing that a modern Google Android couldn't do, and what's more there would be a nifty covert record of its travels.)))

During operations in the former Yugoslavia the UAVs were controlled by a Predator pilot sitting with other specialists in a van near the runway of the drone’s operating base, sometimes flying Predators secretly (((well, sort-of secretly))) out of Hungary and Gjadar, Albania. Later it became possible to shift communications to military satellite networks linked to the pilot’s van, and by 2000 the developing technology allowed operators to fly drones remotely from great distances.

So satellite navigation technology is used not only to help us navigate our automobiles from one city to another but to ensure that we can successfully bomb foreigners in distant villages. The modern Predator is very unobtrusive and since the Hellfire missile is supersonic, targets can be attacked with little warning. For transport purposes the UAV can be disassembled and loaded into a container dubbed “the coffin,” while the entire ground control system can be conveniently rolled into a C-130 Hercules aircraft.

Following the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, the Predator became the primary UAV for offensive operations in Afghanistan and Pakistani tribal areas.

Today the vast majority of Predators are operated by United States forces and the C.I.A. In their arsenal are tens of thousands of UAVs, including at least 7,000 of what some observers call “assassination drones.” This makes the U.S. the biggest user by far of unmanned aerial vehicles in a vast range of different types from small surveillance drones that a soldier can control with a handset to the large Reaper-style machines that can pulverize entire villages.

By 2010, as part of the program of battlefield automation, the United States Air Force claimed to be training more drone operators than fighter and bomber pilots, with current plans to vastly expand its UAV fleet over the next few decades. (((One wonders what will become of these specialized skills in civilian life.)))

In 2006, the USAF was able to fly just a dozen drones at any one time, but now it can fly more than fifty. At a significant trade conference outside Washington in 2009, military contractors described a future vision of pilotless aircraft serving as fighters, bombers, transports, and even automatic mini-drones able to attack in swarms. Thousands of robotic vehicles and drones were already deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan, and by 2015 the Pentagon’s arms procurement program of around $230 billion for "Future Combat Systems" expects at least 15 per cent of the U.S. armed forces to be robotic.

One recent study, The Unmanned Aircraft System Flight Plan 2020-2047, predicted that by 2020 $55 billion would be spent on drone funding. General Norton Schwartz, the Air Force chief of staff, commented: “The capability provided by the unmanned aircraft is game-changing. We can have eyes 24/7 on our adversaries.” In years to come, most American pilots will be sitting at a keyboard in front of a screen rather than operating in the air. (((Really giant robot air transports would be quite interesting.)))

Even now the USAF is flying around 50 drones in Afghanistan, with the number expected to increase to 65 by 2013. In July 2010, WikiLeaks revealed (((one knew that Wikileaks would show up in this narrative, somehow))) that Predator and Reaper drones, typically piloted by remote control from Creech Air Force Base in Nevada, were being used increasingly throughout Afghanistan.

In January 2009 the Washington Post reported that the new drone surveillance system "Gorgon Stare," (((That's a pretty great name even by Pentagon standards))) capable of feeding live video images of movement in an entire urban area, (((except, of course, anything indoors, which is kind of the point of an urban area))) was being deployed to Afghanistan. Major General James Poss, the Air Force deputy chief of staff for intelligence, was quoted: “Gorgon Stare will be looking at a whole city, so there will be no way for the adversary to know what we’re looking at, and we can see everything.” Loren Thompson, chief operating officer of the Lexington Institute, a public policy group, observed, “The availability of surveillance drones and attack drones has grown by leaps and bounds over the last few years,” and suggested that drones will have “saturated” the airspace in the coming years. (((This massive video surveillance is why Britain is now entirely free of crime.)))

Death by Joystick (((I bet they have touchpads by now))

One consequence of this escalation of drone diplomacy is euphemistically called “collateral damage.” Here are but a few examples of what has happened at the other end of the digital divide:

On Feb. 4, 2002, 3 p.m., on a hill near Zhawa Kili, Paktia Province, Afghanistan. A Predator Hellfire missile kills Daraz Khan, Jehangir Khan, and Mir Ahmed, as they scavenge for scrap metal from previous missile attacks. Local villagers tell Doug Struck of the Washington Post that the men, desperately poor, were hoping to sell the scraps in Pakistan, where a camel-load of twisted steel goes for 50 cents. The 16-year-old niece of Daraz Khan asks: “Why did you do this? Why did you Americans kill Daraz? We have nothing, nothing, and you have taken from us our Daraz.” Pentagon spokeswoman Victoria Clark says, “We’re convinced that it was an appropriate target … [although] we do not yet know exactly who it was.”
May 6, 2002, Kunar Province, Afghanistan. A Predator fires at a convoy of cars in an attempt to assassinate warlord Gulbuddin Hektmatyer because of his opposition to U.S.-backed Hamid Karzai, then president of the Afghan Transitional Administration. The warlord isn’t in the convoy. Ten civilians are killed.
Jan. 5, 2006, the Saidqi area of Pakistan. A Predator missile blows up a house where Al-Qaeda’s second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, is suspected to be. He isn’t there. Eight civilians are killed.
Jan. 13, 2006, predawn, the 6th floor of C.I.A. headquarters, Langley, VA. A computer operator gives a command to a Predator twelve-and-a-half time zones away to shoot four Hellfire missiles at three houses in Demadola, Pakistan. The missiles, made by Lockheed Martin and costing $45,000 each, obliterate the houses of three jewelers. The target, Ayman al-Zawahiri, isn’t there. Twenty-two civilians, including five women and five children, are killed while celebrating the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha. “They acted on wrong intelligence,” a Pakistani intelligence officer says of the Americans. An estimated 10,000 people rally in Karachi, many chanting “Death to American aggression” and “Stop bombing innocent people.”
Aug. 22, 2008, in the village of Azizabad, in Herat Province, Afghanistan. An estimated 78-92 civilians, mostly children, are killed by drone missiles. The Pentagon calls the attack a legitimate strike against the Taliban, and denies any civilian casualties. Five weeks later, the U.S. Department of Defense allows that 33 civilians were killed. An investigation by the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan puts the number at 90 civilians, 60 of them children.
On Oct. 13, 2008, in the town of Miran Shah, North Waziristan. A barrage of U.S. drone missiles kills five people. Local people say none of the dead were militants.
Jan. 23, 2009, South Waziristan, three days after President Obama’s inauguration. A Predator strikes the home of Malik Gulistan Khan, a tribal elder and member of a local, pro-government peace committee. Five family members are killed. “I lost my father, three brothers, and my cousin in the attack,” says Adnan, his 18-year-old son. His uncle adds: “We did nothing, have no connections to militants at all.”
April 2, 2009, in the town of Tank, near South Waziristan. Drone missiles kill at least 12 people and wound many more. Some 150 elders protest the strike. Pakistani officials claim that, in the previous year, more than 30 U.S. drone strikes killed approximately 300 people.
April 5, 2009, in the village of Data Khel, near the Afghan border. U.S. drone attacks kill 13 people, including women and children. Thousands of Pakistanis flee the area to escape such attacks, causing a colossal humanitarian crisis. Rabia Ali, spokesman for the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, and Maqbool Shah Roghani, administrator for Internally Displaced People at the Commission for Afghan Refugees, report that 546,000 people have registered as IDPs. Thousands more unregistered people are taking refuge with relatives. The Pakistani government is running short of resources to feed and shelter refugees.
May 5, 2009, in the village of Gerani, near the Iranian border in Afghanistan. In the highest known civilian death toll since fighting began in 2001, over 100 people are killed as they seek shelter in a compound during coalition airstrikes. Using rudimentary tools, villagers dig out the bodies by hand.
May 19, 2009, Khaisor, North Waziristan. A U.S. drone strikes the homes of villagers suspected of feeding alleged militants, killing 14 women and children and two elders, and wounding a dozen more.
June 18, 2009, Raghazai, South Waziristan. A U.S. drone fires missiles into a suspected Taliban compound, killing one person. When villagers rush to help wounded survivors, a hovering drone fires a second missile, killing a dozen more people. The target of the assassination attack, Wali Mohammed, is not in the compound, according to a New York Times report.
July 14, 2009, the Brookings Institute, Washington D.C. Daniel Byman, Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, concludes that an average of 10 civilians to one militant are being killed in U.S. drone attacks.
Oct. 9, 2009, the Datta Khel region of North Waziristan. Saddam Hussein, 13, loses his 10-month-old niece and sister-in-law in a drone strike on their home. “The drones patrol day and night,” Saddam tells the Campaign for Innocent Victims in Conflict (CIVIC). “Sometimes we see six in the air all at once. When they swoop down, people run out of their houses, even at night. “
Dec. 26, 2009, the Barbar Raghazi area of North Waziristan. U.S. drone missiles kill four people and injure more in an attack on a private dwelling. Local officials tell al-Jazeera that all those killed were civilians. A week later, the independent media organization Global Research concludes that of the 44 drone attacks carried out in the Pakistani tribal areas over the past year, only five hit their actual targets. Pakistani officials put the number of children killed in 2009 at 708.
March 2010. The Washington-based New American Foundation reports that 51 drone attacks on Pakistan occurred during the first year of the Obama administration, compared to 45 during the full two terms of the Bush presidency.
September 8, 2010, Yemen. U.S. launches a series of drone attacks against suspected militants. Original report says 20 are killed. Later reports suggest that most of those killed were tribespeople with no connection to militant groups.
Nov. 13, 2010, the village Ahmad Khel, in the Mir Ali area in North Waziristan. A U.S. drone kills five people. A correspondent for Geo News, a Karachi-based Pakistani news channel, reports from the attack site that the dead appeared to be ordinary citizens.
Nov. 16, 2010, in the village of Bangi Dar, North Waziristan, near the Afghan border. Four drone missiles hit a house and vehicle. Al-Jazeera’s Kamal Hyder reports 16 people, including women and children, are killed in the house and four people in the vehicle.
Dec. 2, 2010, the Conflict Monitoring Center (CMC), an Islamabad based independent research center, issues a report on deaths by drones. It concludes that U.S. and Pakistani officials are deliberately overlooking civilian deaths, which outnumber those of militants. The CMC estimates 2,043 Pakistanis have been slain in C.I.A. drone attacks in the past five years, the vast majority innocent civilians.
Jan. 23, 2011, Mir Ali, North Waziristan. U.S. drones kill 13 people in the area. Some 2,000 local tribesmen hold a protest to demand an end to the drone strikes, saying they kill innocent civilians. 75% of all Pakistani deaths over the past five years have occurred during the presidency of Barack Obama.

The Co-Pioneer

Israel is America’s co-pioneer in drone technology.

Today it is the world’s leader.

Israel has modified U.S. designs for its own arsenal and for export. Its primary model, the Hermes, is the Jewish State’s answer to the Predator. It can hover at 18,000 feet for up to 20 hours. Its sensors can discern people on the ground and even distinguish between adults and children. The drones deployed in Gaza during Israel’s 23-day Operation Cast Lead, carried missiles with a lethal blast radius of 10 to 20 yards....