Who Will Die Next on Game of Thrones? Check Our Death Pool
Ever since last season started veering wildly from George R. R. Martin's books, it's become clear that we're very much north of the Wall when it comes to predicting what's going to happen on Game of Thrones. Anyone could die, and (almost) anyone could eventually end up atop the Iron Throne. So, to make a game of this Game, this season we're going to be keeping odds on who might die before this show is over. (As are the folks at sports-betting site Paddy Power.) Now that we already lost Doran and Trystane Martell at the hands of Ellaria Sand and the Sand Snakes in last night's premiere, here's where everyone else stands---and as the season wears on, we'll be updating these odds to reflect plot developments. Call it a recap with benefits.
Jaime Lannister
Oh, Jaime. You ended last season by trying to rescue your niece/daughter Myrcella from Dorne. That ended oh-so-poorly when she was poisoned by Ellaria (pro tip: never kiss/cross Ellaria). Now that he's returned to King's Landing with Myrcella's body, his sister/lover Cersei might want to kill him, but she won't. Jaime's new who "fuck everyone who isn't us" attitude might get him in trouble, though, but chances are the Kingslayer will get out of it.
Death Pool Odds: 7/1*
Chance of death: 12.5%
**(How to read bookmakers' odds: Think of the first number as how much money the house will pay out if the bettor puts down the second number. If the odds are 7/1, then the house will pay you $7 if you put down $1. Since the house doesn't want to lose money, 7/1 odds mean bookmakers don't think it's going to happen.) *
Helen Sloan/HBOVarys
After being briefly abandoned by Tyrion last season, Varys has been reunited with everyone's favorite Lannister. The Spider has his share of enemies (you don't get to be the Master of Whisperers without whispering something to the wrong person), but he's also got friends. And for now, those friends will keep him safe. Even if they don't, Varys can talk his way out of anything.
Death Pool Odds: 7/1
Chance of death: 12.5%
Macall B. Polay/HBO
Cersei Lannister
The Walk of Shame last season was just the tip of the hateberg—Westeros is full of people who despise Cersei Lannister, and quite a few of them want her dead. But after completing her horrific naked tour of King's Landing at the hands of the High Sparrow, she was whisked away by the latest, largest member of the Kingsguard; we now know that's probably the zombified Gregor Clegane, but what matters is that he's taken a vow of silence until all of her enemies are dead. So she's pretty well protected these days.
Death Pool Odds: 7/1
Chance of death: 12.5%
Macall B. Polay/HBOArya Stark
Arya Stark might've been blinded last season after killing Ser Meryn Trant out of vengeance, rather than because it was his time. But just because she's down, doesn't mean she's out. She's a Stark, and an audience favorite. She's got many more faces to wear, and many more people to check off of her kill list before she goes. She's probably learned her lesson about sneaking off and killing people, but she also really seemed to enjoy sneaking off and killing Trant, so she'll likely do it again—while fighting blind.
Death Pool Odds: 12/1
Chance of death: 7.69%
Macall B. Polay/HBO
Missandei
If you're among a certain subset of fans (like, say, Anna Kendrick) then Game of Thrones is really just the love story between Missandei and Daenerys Targaryen. If you're everybody else, you see Missandei as a very compelling side player, which puts her chances of dying somewhere in the realm of Maybe Don't Get Too Comfortable. She accidentally got out of harm's way when Dany flew off on Drogon last season, but now that she's taken up with Grey Worm, her fate isn't much better---someone is always trying to kill that guy.
Death Pool Odds: 2/1
Chance of death: 33.33%
Helen Sloan/HBOSansa Stark
Sansa Stark ended last season by jumping off the side of a friggin' castle, and has already shown up in promos for Season 6 wearing the House Stark's direwolf sigil. Not only is she not going down without a fight, she's not going down at all. Also, after enduring a wedding-night rape at the hands of Ramsay Bolton, Sansa can survive anything—and now that Brienne of Tarth has finally* *found her, she's got a knight (and Podrick!) watching her back. So she's safe. (Unless some blood-magic ghost-faced killer comes after her; then she's screwed.)
Death Pool Odds: 8/1
Chance of death: 11.11%
Helen Sloan/HBO
Daenerys Targaryen
Short version: No one is killing the Mother of Dragons. Also a survivor of wedding-night rape (this show, man...), Daenerys has spent five seasons amassing an army, conquering lands, freeing slaves, and raising dragons. The woman is Valyrian steel. She ended last season surrounded by the Dothraki—though not the Dothraki that she used to run with—and now those Dothraki say she needs to stay in a home for widows forevermore. Fear not, fans, she'll find her way out. She's the heroine of this story—the odds are ever in her favor.
Death Pool Odds: 20/1
Chance of death: 4.76%
Macall B. Polay/HBOTyrion Lannister
On paper, Tyrion would have a better chance of survival if he had a target painted on his back. His family may always pay their debts, but they're not exactly popular in Westeros these days. And it's not like his family name would help him anymore anyway. His brother Jaime was on his side, but after he freed Tyrion the Little Lion killed their father. Now he's trying to avoid civil war in Daenerys-less Meereen And yet! No one thinks Tyrion is going to die. He's just too good at escaping death—even if last night's fire at the docks means he's not sailing out of Meereen any time soon.
Death Pool Odds: 12/1
Chance of death: 7.69%
Helen Sloan/HBO
Jorah Mormont
Poor Jorah. After saving Dany's life at the end of Season 5, you'd think he'd be in pretty good shape—getting back into his queen's good graces after spying on her for so long. But then he had to go and get greyscale. So even if a sword doesn't take him (quite likely now that he's found Dany's ring-in-a-haystack and is about to enter a horde of Dothraki to save her), his illness very well could.
Death Pool Odds: 4/7
Chance of death: 63.64%
Helen Sloan/HBOThe High Sparrow
The High Sparrow and his religious zealots are living pretty high and mighty in King's Landing now, but you know who else is quickly regaining her power? Cersei. You know who wants the High Sparrow dead more than anyone? Cersei. It might take a while for her and her Kingsguard henchmen to get to him, but they're going to savor that killing when they do.
Death Pool Odds: 5/6
Chance of death: 63.64%
HBO
King Tommen Baratheon
Look, no one wears the crown of King of the Andals and the First Men for very long, especially if they also wear the name Lannister/Baratheon. Tommen, you're just too sweet. You might have a badass queen mother behind you, but there are like a bajillion people in the Seven Kingdoms who want your job. Don't leave your drink unattended at the party is what we're saying.
Death Pool Odds: 7/4
Chance of death: 36.36%
Helen Sloan/HBOBrienne of Tarth
Now that Brienne has found Sansa, there might be another snag in the whole idea of Brienne-protecting-Sansa: Brienne's death. She did her duty when she killed Stannis Baratheon at the end of last season (he'd used Melisandre/magic to kill Renly, whom she was sworn to protect), but that might mean every one of Stannis' soldiers that Ramsay Bolton didn't kill is now after her. Oh, and Ramsay Bolton's soldiers themselves are now definitely out to kill her to get to Sansa. She's a tough knight, and Sansa can help look out for her, but her only other real ally is Podrick, so unless she can constantly watch her back, she's going to have a hard time staying alive.
Death Pool Odds: 5/6
Chance of death: 54.55%
Helen Sloan/HBO
Samwell Tarly
Good old Sam. Sure, the Night's Watch might be suspicious of him considering his allegiance to Jon Snow, but the man killed a White Walker. He had dragonglass, of course, but anyone who doesn't straight up soil themselves at the sight of a White Walker is a valuable commodity. Long live Sam.
Death Pool Odds: 14/1
Chance of death: 6.67%
Macall B. Polay/HBOTheon "Reek" Greyjoy
Theon Greyjoy has pretty much been dead inside ever since Ramsay made him his whipping boy. He got a spark of life at the end of last season when he jumped off the top of Ramsay's castle with Sansa, but he also may have sealed his fate. Sansa desperately wants to live—Theon not so much. He may continue protecting Sansa like he did during last night's season premiere for a while, but the chances of him getting out of this season alive are pretty slim.
Death Pool Odds: 2/5
Chance of death: 71.43%
HBO
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