Quantum computing, artificial general intelligence—when it comes to breakout technologies like these, the creation of multilateral rules of engagement may prevent a looming technology cold war between China and the United States from escalating.
“We’re going to see more and more and more of this innovation,” said Dr. Nicol Turner Lee, senior fellow in governance studies and director of the Center for Technology Innovation at the Brookings Institution. “Going forward we’ve got to come to some kind of agreement on what the future of innovation looks like, particularly in creating the type of cooperative structures that do not become weapons of mass destruction against countries.”
She drew this conclusion in a timely and freewheeling conversation, sponsored by Huawei, on globalization and the future of technology with WIRED Editor in chief Nicholas Thompson and Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group and GZERO Media last Thursday.
“This is the first time in my life I could say that, on every single issue that matters between the United States and China, the trajectory is deteriorating,” Bremmer said. “The world’s two largest economies right now have zero trust for each other and are heading towards decoupling—and the most dramatic and perhaps hard-to-turn-around piece of that is on the technology side.”
Decoupling—the separation of America’s technology systems, platforms, and supply chains from China’s—would end decades of collaboration, stifle innovation, and have the potential to sow conflict and chaos. Tech companies around the world would have to decide which of these two huge markets to sell into and source from. Global standards in areas such as computing architectures and telecommunications would fragment. “At the end of the day, we don’t want to create dual technology ecosystems where we cannot benefit from either discounts or portability of data,” said Turner Lee.
The repercussions for specific tech sectors could be severe. Some already feel the pain of new trade restrictions—and it could get worse. In a recent study, it was estimated that over the next three to five years, US semiconductor companies could lose 16 percent of their revenues under the status quo and 37 percent of their revenues under decoupling.
The US has been taking an especially hard line on 5G technology, barring its purchase from Chinese companies and pushing many allies to do the same. Said Turner Lee, “We’re at this stalemate as to what reasonable alternative the United States has to invest in the types of equipment needed, at a lower cost, when it comes to building out a 5G network.”
This comes as the Covid-19 pandemic has boosted demand for the faster data handling 5G promises. The virus’s spread is fueling a sense of urgency to get new networks up and running to fuel online services such as telemedicine and remote education. American companies are “starting to realize that they need different types of spectrum bands to be more successful,” Turner Lee said. “They need to be more competitive with the Chinese government when it comes to accelerating access to resources.”
Artificial intelligence is a thornier problem. WIRED raised the issue in 2018 with an article, “The AI Cold War That Threatens Us All,” written by Thompson and Bremmer. On Thursday, Turner Lee said that Chinese research and development of AI tools is bringing it to the fore as “an issue around national security and foreign policy.” She added, “The idea that one country may have an advance over another leaps in concern when you start talking about vulnerabilities in networks and systems and data.”
How to move forward? Both Bremmer and Turner Lee feel the US can afford to take a hard line on 5G, as well as on data security issues such as hacking. “There are some areas of data where we want to beat the Chinese,” Bremmer said. But these must be clearly defined, delineated, and understood before drawing a hard line. “There should not be a knee-jerk reaction against China on anything that involves technology, but there should be on areas that are core national security.”
Both experts, however, advocated a much more collaborative approach on the development of a Covid-19 vaccine, as well as on climate change. The key to the most contentious issues, they agreed, is communication. Bremmer suggested talks on AI “between the Americans and Chinese that are similar to the SALT and START conversations we had with the Soviets in the day.” As with those nuclear arms treaties, he said, “I want some bounded constraints on the rules of the game that we can agree on—the ethics of AI, the kind of testing that you need to do on algorithms before you release them into the broad population.”
Multinational teams of scientists must take an active role, too, identifying “what sorts of AI discoveries and research trends could lead to sudden breakout advantages for one side or the other that could precipitate a preemptive strike,” Bremmer said, listing quantum computing, artificial general intelligence, and the concept of superintelligence as possible hot spots.
The idea is to avoid what Bremmer calls “a Thucydides trap where the Americans and Chinese end up in direct military confrontation because the logic of the environment gives us no other choice” in the next five to ten years.
Turner Lee has her eye on not just the potential risks but the potential rewards. “Whoever gets access to this technology has the ability to weaponize it against other countries, but more so to reap the benefits of community and economic development, which is what we really need right now,” she said. We must come to agreement or we’ll “find ourselves in an implosion that’s not going to be good for the citizens of either country.”
More conversation, more collaboration, more deep thought about these vital issues—that’s just what Huawei envisions as a global tech leader. And it’s the reason the company is supporting frank discussions like this one.
Already partnering with 170 countries on network security and transparency programs, Huawei is calling for governments to come together with the tech and telecom sectors around cybersecurity—especially the cybersecurity supply chain—and discuss a comprehensive framework that can assure end users that each element of the network has been examined for its ability to support their safe and secure access. To build a system that everyone can trust, the world needs aligned responsibilities, unified standards, and clear regulation.
This story was produced by WIRED Brand Lab for Huawei.
